Ice formation and development in aged, wintertime cumulus over the UK: observations and modelling

In situ high resolution aircraft measurements of cloud microphysical properties were made in coordination with ground based remote sensing observations of a line of small cumulus clouds, using Radar and Lidar, as part of the Aerosol Properties, PRocesses And InfluenceS on the Earth's climate (APPRAISE) project. A narrow but extensive line (~100 km long) of shallow convective clouds over the southern UK was studied. Cloud top temperatures were observed to be higher than −8 °C, but the clouds were seen to consist of supercooled droplets and varying concentrations of ice particles. No ice particles were observed to be falling into the cloud tops from above. Current parameterisations of ice nuclei (IN) numbers predict too few particles will be active as ice nuclei to account for ice particle concentrations at the observed, near cloud top, temperatures (−7.5 °C). The role of mineral dust particles, consistent with concentrations observed near the surface, acting as high temperature IN is considered important in this case. It was found that very high concentrations of ice particles (up to 100 L−1) could be produced by secondary ice particle production providing the observed small amount of primary ice (about 0.01 L−1) was present to initiate it. This emphasises the need to understand primary ice formation in slightly supercooled clouds. It is shown using simple calculations that the Hallett-Mossop process (HM) is the likely source of the secondary ice. Model simulations of the case study were performed with the Aerosol Cloud and Precipitation Interactions Model (ACPIM). These parcel model investigations confirmed the HM process to be a very important mechanism for producing the observed high ice concentrations. A key step in generating the high concentrations was the process of collision and coalescence of rain drops, which once formed fell rapidly through the cloud, collecting ice particles which caused them to freeze and form instant large riming particles. The broadening of the droplet size-distribution by collision-coalescence was, therefore, a vital step in this process as this was required to generate the large number of ice crystals observed in the time available. Simulations were also performed with the WRF (Weather, Research and Forecasting) model. The results showed that while HM does act to increase the mass and number concentration of ice particles in these model simulations it was not found to be critical for the formation of precipitation. However, the WRF simulations produced a cloud top that was too cold and this, combined with the assumption of continual replenishing of ice nuclei removed by ice crystal formation, resulted in too many ice crystals forming by primary nucleation compared to the observations and parcel modelling.

The effect of the daily intake of inulin on fasting lipid, insulin and glucose concentrations in middle-aged men and women

The present study was carried out to examine the effect of the daily intake of 10 g inulin on fasting blood lipid, glucose and insulin levels in healthy middle-aged men and women with moderately raised total plasma cholesterol (TC) and triacylglycerol (TAG) levels. This study was a doubleblind randomized placebo-controlled parallel study in which fifty-four middle-aged subjects received either inulin or placebo for a period of 8 weeks. Fasting blood samples were collected before the supplementation period (baseline samples 1 and 2, separated by 1 week) and at weeks 4 and 8, with a follow-up at week 12. Compared with baseline values, insulin concentrations were significantly lower at 4 weeks (P,0×01) in the inulin group. There was a trend for TAG values, compared with baseline, to be lower in the inulin group at 8 weeks (P,0×08) returning to baseline concentrations at week 12. On comparison of the inulin and placebo groups, the fasting TAG responses over the 8-week test period were shown to be significantly different (P,0×05, repeated measures ANOVA), which was largely due to lower plasma TAG levels in the inulin group at week 8. The percentage change in TAG levels in the inulin group during the 8-week study was shown to correlate with the initial TAG level of the subjects (rs -0×499, P = 0×004). We therefore conclude that the daily addition of 10 g inulin to the diet significantly reduced fasting insulin concentrations during the 8-week test period and resulted in lower plasma TAG levels, particularly in subjects in whom fasting TAG levels were greater than 1×5 mmol/l. These data support findings from animal studies that fructans influence the formation and/or degradation of TAG-rich lipoprotein particles, and the insulin data are also consistent with recent studies showing attenuation of insulin levels in fructan-treated rats.

The interannual variability of energy transports within and over the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model

To gain a new perspective on the interaction of the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere, the relationship between the atmospheric and oceanic meridional energy transports is studied in a version of HadCM3, the U.K. Hadley Centre's coupled climate model. The correlation structure of the energy transports in the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude, and the cross correlation between the two systems are analyzed. The processes that give rise to the correlations are then elucidated using regression analyses. In northern midlatitudes, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by Ekman processes. Anticorrelated zonal winds in the subtropics and midlatitudes, particularly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), drive anticorrelated meridional Ekman transports. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with changes in the stationary waves, but is only weakly related to the NAO. Nevertheless, atmospheric driving of the oceanic Ekman transports is responsible for a bipolar pattern in the correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports. In the Tropics, the interannual variability of the Atlantic Ocean energy transport is dominated by an adjustment of the tropical ocean to coastal upwelling induced along the Venezuelan coast by a strengthening of the easterly trade winds. Variability in the atmospheric energy transport is associated with a cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation that is only weakly associated with variability in the trade winds along the Venezuelan coast. In consequence, there is only very limited correlation between the atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean energy transports in the Tropics of HadCM3

Dipeptide nanotubes, with n-terminally located omega-amino acid residues, that are stable proteolytically, thermally, and over a wide range of pH

Two dipeptides containing an N-terminally positioned omega-amino acid residue (beta-alanine/delta-amino valeric acid) self-assembles to form nanotubes in the solid state as well as in aqueous solution. In spite of having hollow nanotubular structures in the solid state and in solution, their self-assembling nature in these two states are different and this leads to the formation of different internal diameters of these nanotubes in solution and in solid state structure. These nanotubes are stable proteolytically, thermally, and over a wide range of pH values (1-13). The role of water molecules in nanotube formation has been investigated in the solid state. These nanotubes can be considered as a new class of dipeptide nanotubes as they are consisting of N-terminally located protease resistant omega-amino acid residues and C-terminally positioned alpha-amino acid residues. These dipeptides can form an interesting class of short peptidic structure that can give rise to stable nanotubular structure upon self-assembly and these nanotubes can be explored in future for potential nanotechnological applications.

Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged 16 and over. Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

Spatio-temporal variability of polynya dynamics and ice production in the Laptev Sea between the winters of 1979/80 and 2007/08

Polynyas in the Laptev Sea are examined with respect to recurrence and interannual wintertime ice production.We use a polynya classification method based on passive microwave satellite data to derive daily polynya area from long-term sea-ice concentrations. This provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability of open-water and thin-ice regions on the Laptev Sea Shelf. Using thermal infrared satellite data to derive an empirical thin-ice distribution within the thickness range from 0 to 20 cm, we calculate daily average surface heat loss and the resulting wintertime ice formation within the Laptev Sea polynyas between 1979 and 2008 using reanalysis data supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA, as atmospheric forcing. Results indicate that previous studies significantly overestimate the contribution of polynyas to the ice production in the Laptev Sea. Average wintertime ice production in polynyas amounts to approximately 55 km39 27% and is mostly determined by the polynya area, wind speed and associated large-scale circulation patterns. No trend in ice production could be detected in the period from 1979/80 to 2007/08.

Validating ECMWF forecasts for the occurrence of ice supersaturation using visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements over England

One of the largest uncertainties in quantifying the impact of aviation on climate concerns the formation and spreading of persistent contrails. The inclusion of a cloud scheme that allows for ice supersaturation into the integrated forecast system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can be a useful tool to help reduce these uncertainties. This study evaluates the quality of the ECMWF forecasts with respect to ice super saturation in the upper troposphere by comparing them to visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements of ice supersaturation over England. The performance of 1- to 3-day forecasts is compared including also the vertical accuracy of the supersaturation forecasts. It is found that the operational forecasts from the ECMWF are able to predict cold ice supersaturated regions very well. For the best cases Peirce skill scores of 0.7 are obtained, with hit rates at times exceeding 80% and false-alarm rates below 20%. Results are very similar for comparisons with visual observations and radiosonde measurements, the latter providing the better statistical significance.

Obesity and health in Europeans aged 50 years and older

Background: Obesity is increasing globally across all population groups. Limited data are available on how obesity patterns differ across countries. Objective: To document the prevalence of obesity and related health conditions for Europeans aged 50 years and older, and to estimate the association between obesity and health outcomes across 10 European countries. Methods: Data were obtained from the 2004 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, a cross-national survey of 22 777 Continental Europeans over the age of 50 years. The health outcomes included self-reported health, disability, doctor-diagnosed chronic health conditions and depression. Multivariate regression analysis was used to predict health outcomes across weight classes (defined by body mass index [BMI] from self-reported weight and height) in the pooled sample and individually in each country. Results: The prevalence of obesity (BMI >= 30) ranged from 12.8% in Sweden to 20.2% in Spain for men and from 12.3% in Switzerland to 25.6% in Spain for women. Adjusting for compositional differences across countries changed little in the observed large heterogeneity in obesity rates throughout Europe. Compared with normal weight individuals, men and women with greater BMI had significantly higher risks for all chronic health conditions examined except heart disease in overweight men. Depression was linked to obesity in women only. Particularly pronounced risks of impaired health and chronic health conditions were found among severely obese people. The effects of obesity on health did not vary significantly across countries. Conclusions: Cross-country differences in the prevalence of obesity in older Europeans are substantial and exceed socio-demographic differentials in excessive body weight. Obesity is associated with significantly poorer health outcomes among Europeans aged 50 years and over, with effects similar across countries. Large heterogeneity in obesity throughout Europe should be investigated further to identify areas for effective public policy. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Royal Institute of Public Health.

Forest fire plumes over the North Atlantic: p-TOMCAT model simulations with aircraft and satellite measurements from the ITOP/ICARTT campaign

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) (part of International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)) was an intense research effort to measure long-range transport of pollution across the North Atlantic and its impact on O3 production. During the aircraft campaign plumes were encountered containing large concentrations of CO plus other tracers and aerosols from forest fires in Alaska and Canada. A chemical transport model, p-TOMCAT, and new biomass burning emissions inventories are used to study the emissions long-range transport and their impact on the troposphere O3 budget. The fire plume structure is modeled well over long distances until it encounters convection over Europe. The CO values within the simulated plumes closely match aircraft measurements near North America and over the Atlantic and have good agreement with MOPITT CO data. O3 and NOx values were initially too great in the model plumes. However, by including additional vertical mixing of O3 above the fires, and using a lower NO2/CO emission ratio (0.008) for boreal fires, O3 concentrations are reduced closer to aircraft measurements, with NO2 closer to SCIAMACHY data. Too little PAN is produced within the simulated plumes, and our VOC scheme's simplicity may be another reason for O3 and NOx model-data discrepancies. In the p-TOMCAT simulations the fire emissions lead to increased tropospheric O3 over North America, the north Atlantic and western Europe from photochemical production and transport. The increased O3 over the Northern Hemisphere in the simulations reaches a peak in July 2004 in the range 2.0 to 6.2 Tg over a baseline of about 150 Tg.

The relationships of time and temperature to body weight and numbers of endospores in Pasteuria penetrans-infected Meloidogyne javanica females

Tomato plants inoculated with Meloidogyne javanica juveniles infected with Pasteuria penetrans were grown in a glasshouse (20-32degreesC) for 36, 53, 71 and 88 days and in a growth room (26-29degreesC) for 36, 53, 71 and 80 days. Over these periods the numbers of P penetrans endospores in infected M. javanica females and the weights of individual infected females increased. In the growth room, most spores (2.03 x 10(6)) were found after 71 days. However, in the glasshouse the rate of increase was slower and spore numbers were still increasing at the final sampling at 88 days (2.04 x 10(6)), as was the weight of the nematodes (72 mug). Weights of uninfected females reached a maximum of 36.2 and 43.1 mug after 71 days in the growth room and glasshouse, respectively.

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemical, physical and electrical properties of aged dodecylbenzene: thermal ageing of mixed isomers in air

A commercial dodecylbenzene (DDB) cable oil was aged at temperatures between 90 and 135 degrees C in air and was analyzed using various analytical techniques including optical and infra-red spectroscopy and dielectric analysis. On ageing, the oil darkened, significant oxidation features were found by infra-red spectroscopy and the acid number, water content and dielectric loss all increased. Ageing in the presence of paper or aluminum did not affect the ageing process, whereas ageing was significantly modified by the presence of copper. An absorption at 680 nm ("red absorbers") was detected by ultra-violet/visible spectroscopy followed by the production of an opaque precipitate. A reaction between copper and the acid generated on ageing is thought to produce copper carboxylates, and X-ray fluorescence confirmed that copper was indeed present in both the aged oil and the precipitate. Significantly, once red absorbers were detected, the dielectric loss increased to catastrophically high values and, therefore, the appearance of these compounds may serve as a useful diagnostic indicator. The development of acidity on ageing appears to be key in initiating the destructive copper conversion reaction and hence the control of oil acidity may be key to prolonging the life of DDB cable oils.

Is influenza vaccination cost effective for healthy people between ages 65 and 74 years? A randomised controlled trial

The aim of this study was to determine the cost effectiveness of influenza vaccination for healthy people aged 65-74 years living in the UK. People without risk factors for influenza (chronic heart, lung or renal disease, diabetic, immuno-suppressed or those living in an institution) were identified from 20 general practitioner (GP) practices in Liverpool in September 1999. 729/5875 (12.4%) eligible individuals were recruited and randomised to receive either influenza vaccine or placebo (ratio 3: 1)! with all participants receiving 23-valent-pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine unless already administered. The primary analysis was the frequency of influenza as recorded by a GP diagnosis of pneumonia or influenza like illness. In 2000, the UK vaccination policy was changed with influenza vaccine becoming available. for all people aged 65 years and over irrespective of risk. As a consequence of this policy change. the study had to be fundamentally restructured and only results obtained over a one rather than the originally planned two-year randomised controlled trial framework were used. Results from 1999/2000 demonstrated no significant difference between groups for the primary outcome (relative risk 0.8, 95%, CI 0.16-4.1). In addition. there were no deaths or hospitalisations for influenza associated respiratory illness in either group. The subsequent analysis. using both national and local sources of evidence, estimated the following cost effectiveness indicators: (1) incremental NHS cost per GP consultation avoided = pound2000; (2) incremental NHS cost per hospital admission avoided = pound61,000: (3) incremental NHS cost per death avoided = pound1.900.000 and (4) incremental NHS cost per QALY gained = pound304,000. The analysis suggested that influenza vaccination in this Population would not be cost effective. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-traumatic stress symptoms in childhood brain tumour survivors and their parents

Objectives This study aimed to investigate post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) in childhood brain tumour survivors and their parents. A further aim was to explore the relationship between objective illness parameters, parent–child interactions, coping styles and PTSS. Methods A cross-sectional correlational design was employed. Fifty-two childhood brain tumour survivors, aged 8–16, and 52 parents completed a battery of questionnaires designed to assess quality of parent–child interactions, monitoring and blunting attentional coping styles and PTSS. Results Over one-third (35%) of survivors and 29% of their parents reported severe levels of PTSS (suggestive of post-traumatic stress disorder ‘caseness’). Increased parent–child conflict resolution for survivors and number of tumour recurrences for parents independently predicted the variance in PTSS. Conclusions For a substantial proportion of brain tumour survivors and their parents the process of survivorship is a considerably distressing experience.

Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean

By comparing annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over land and ocean since 1950 simulated by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) climate models in which natural and anthropogenic forcings have been included, we find that clear global-scale and regional-scale changes due to human influence are expected to have occurred over both land and ocean. These include moistening over northern high latitude land and ocean throughout all seasons and over the northern subtropical oceans during boreal winter. However we show that this signal of human influence is less distinct when considered over the relatively small area of land for which there are adequate observations to make assessments of multi-decadal scale trends. These results imply that extensive and significant changes in precipitation over the land and ocean may have already happened, even though, inadequacies in observations in some parts of the world make it difficult to identify conclusively such a human fingerprint on the global water cycle. In some regions and seasons, due to aliasing of different kinds of variability as a result of sub sampling by the sparse and changing observational coverage, observed trends appear to have been increased, underscoring the difficulties of interpreting the apparent magnitude of observed changes in precipitation.